Lies, damned lies and Kennel Club statistics

The latest Kennel Club Journal has a table on page 32 which is reproduced below. Everyone is supposed to look at the final column and say “Wow, Breed Club shows run in partnership with a General Championship show really do result in increased entries“.

For the Dachshunds, that’s just not true and it wouldn’t surprise me if it’s not true for any of the other breeds.partnership_shows_2016_kc_journal_dataThe final column shows the percentage increase the club show achieved COMPARED WITH THE BREED’S AVERAGE ENTRY AT SHOWS IN 2015. It is NOT the increase in entry compared with that breed show in 2015.

Let’s look at what’s happened to entries for each of the Dachshund breeds at the Midland DC show since 2011. Running the 2016 show in partnership with the Houndshow has made absolutely no difference to the level of entries. 2016 entries in all four varieties is completely within the statistically expected range of variation from year to year. Yet, no doubt the KC table would have you believe that Mini Longs and Mini Smooths have both increased their entries by over a quarter.

ml_at_midlandms_at_midland_dcmw_at_midland_dcw_at_midland_dc

So, for Dachshunds, there is NO EVIDENCE that running a Breed Club championship show in partnership with a General Society results in a bigger entry.

% increase over Average Breed Entry in 2015 is a meaningless statistic.

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